Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 30.031099 33.449321 37.368716 42.261320 48.303230 55.659387 65.525961
2025-06-22 25.127102 29.408712 34.765624 42.189822 52.631629 67.565024 92.322687
2025-06-29 21.658127 26.201072 32.237173 41.272813 55.376238 78.660655 126.793882
2025-07-06 20.148923 25.148781 32.190778 43.599573 63.585259 103.001060 216.463949
2025-07-13 18.309004 23.307680 30.618025 43.112925 66.912172 121.122737 340.117070
2025-07-20 17.041739 22.080659 29.706411 43.415801 71.806905 147.679768 654.472315
2025-07-27 16.033074 21.091556 28.979175 43.821721 77.118341 182.692844 1849.451826
2025-08-03 15.100096 20.103110 28.092413 43.700645 81.220209 221.646261 21854.364110
2025-08-10 14.226800 19.115993 27.069949 43.081183 83.851758 261.917583 NaN
2025-08-17 13.583515 18.430713 26.474427 43.204251 88.693587 331.012382 NaN
2025-08-24 12.958322 17.719170 25.746102 42.892924 92.196621 411.023689 NaN
2025-08-31 12.375634 17.031307 24.985583 42.366629 94.862384 507.528015 NaN
2025-09-07 11.842903 16.397614 24.278407 41.881345 97.733905 648.557831 NaN
2025-09-14 11.387022 15.862725 23.706084 41.623655 101.522788 888.949725 NaN
2025-09-21 10.890894 15.228866 22.891307 40.645145 102.042430 1110.784400 NaN
2025-09-28 10.781252 15.246392 23.324016 42.872690 118.296578 3920.374709 NaN
2025-10-05 10.403416 14.773818 22.751105 42.381324 121.540318 10095.652017 NaN
2025-10-12 10.129353 14.466989 22.482141 42.667557 129.420005 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.884464 14.197008 22.263411 43.058223 138.649172 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.612846 13.864212 21.888075 42.938882 144.931279 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.319868 13.478627 21.374850 42.336233 147.665896 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.103876 13.222182 21.114491 42.455474 156.210195 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 8.868750 12.919798 20.735112 42.152791 161.500188 NaN NaN